Continuing the tradition of setting up a timeline as I did for the first arc, second arc, and third arc, here is a timeline for the fourth arc of Umineko no Naku Koro ni. As always, it is based on what was shown on screen, which cannot be trusted. In fact, certain red truths make it clear that some of the events described in the timeline could not have happened, at least in a literal sense. This story arc is very different from the others in that almost all of the significant events in the real world occurred in the first day.
October 4, 1986
- Episode IV-I begins.
- Other parents submit to Krauss the demand to see Kinzo.
- Kinzo tells Krauss and Natsuhi that he will participate in family meeting.
- Episode IV-II begins.
- Maria gets back inside the mansion from the garden as it rains.
- Episode IV-IV begins.
- Kinzo participates in family meeting.
- Natsuhi, Hideyoshi, Rudolf, Genji, Eva, and Rosa are killed.
- Nanjo, Kyrie, Krauss, Kanon, and Shannon are taken prisoner.
- Gohda and Kumasawa escape.
- Maria has killed Rosa over a hundred times, presumably in her dreams.
- Gohda and Kumasawa escape to room with grandchildren.
- Krauss calls Jessica to stress safety.
- Episode IV-V begins.
- Kinzo forces Krauss to call Jessica about test.
- Gohda and Kumasawa are locked in storehouse.
- Kyrie calls Battler that Jessica is the first to be tested.
- Jessica receives her test.
- George receives his test.
- Episode IV-VI begins.
- Krauss, Kyrie, Nanjo, Shannon, and Kanon escape.
- George and Jessica are killed.
- Jessica calls Battler from her room.
- Kanon, Shannon, Nanjo, and Krauss are killed.
- Kyrie calls Battler from the kitchen.
- Kyrie is killed.
- Beatrice calls Maria and Battler.
- Battler finds Gohda and Kumasawa dead in locked storehouse.
- Battler encounters Beatrice, who subsequently gives up game.
- Beatrice burns Kinzo to death.
- In meta world, Beatrice and Battler resume game.
- Episode IV-I begins.
- Ange escapes from Sumadera Kasumi.
- Episode IV-II begins.
- Ange meets Rokkenjima otaku.
- Episode IV-III begins.
- Ange and Amakusa take boat to Niijima.
- Sumadera Kasumi and her lackeys arrive at local airport.
- Episode IV-V begins.
- Ange meets Nanjo Masayuki and Kumasawa Sabakichi about mysterious letters.
- Ange meets Kawabata about getting to Rokkenjima.
- Episode IV-VII begins.
- Ange and Amakusa arrive at Rokkenjima with help from Kawabata.
- Ange encounters Sumadera Kasumi and lackeys.
- Sumadera Kasumi and lackeys are killed.
- Eva appears and is killed.
Red and blue truths
This story arc introduced the use of blue truths, which are declarations that must be properly countered by a red truth, otherwise one concedes defeat. It is a way to force an opponent to reveal a red truth instead of allowing them to refuse to state anything in red whenever they want. Red truths, of course, state things that are definitely true (unless Battler and we were being epically trolled for the past several story arcs). Below are the red and blue truths declared in this arc.
Battler, in blue, later countered by Beatrice:
- Ushiromiya Kinzo is already dead. Thus there are really 17 people on the island. With the addition of an unknown person X, the number of people on the island becomes 18. Assuming the existence of this person, the crime is still possible even if all 17 people have alibis.
Battler, in red:
- The mother of Ushiromiya Battler is Ushiromiya Asumu.
However, Battler was unable to say “I was born from Ushiromiya Asumu” in red.
Ange said that Beatrice declared the following in red, although it was not explicitly shown as red on screen when Beatrice had said it:
- Ushiromiya Battler is not the son of Ushiromiya Asumu.
- Only Battler, a grandchild of Kinzo, is qualified to be Beatriceâ€™s opponent
Beatrice is unable or unwilling to say “Ushiromiya Battler is not a grandchild of Ushiromiya Kinzo” in red.
Ange, in blue, which Beatrice does not counter:
- The one who has the right to be Beatoâ€™s opponent is Ushiromiya Battler, a grandchild of Ushiromiya Kinzo, and it is irrelevant whether he is the son of Asumu or not.
Battler, in blue, which Beatrice counters soon after:
- Ushiromiya Kinzo was already dead at the start of the game! Accordingly, the true number of people on the island is seventeen! With an unknown person X added to their midst, the number is eighteen! With the existence of this person X, even if all seventeen people had alibis, the crime by person X becomes possible!
- (Concerning third round, starting with six initial murders.) It can be explained by postulating that Aunt Eva was working with the perpetuator! The murder of Doctor Nanjo can also be explained with the eighteenth person, the unknown person X!
- (Concerning deaths in fourth round, starting with six initial murders.) The eighteenth person X firing a gun indiscriminately, George, Jessica, and those who escaped from the underground prison were killed: this explanation leaves no questionable point!
Presumably Beatrice declares in red that everyone who participated in the family meeting of episode IV-IV accepted the existence of Kinzo in the fourth round, although this is not shown in red. Otherwise, there is no point in Battler declaring the following in blue:
- Ushiromiya Kinzo is already dead! However, someone inherited his name, and everyone acknowledged it! Through this, everyone present at the family meeting recognized the existence of Kinzo!
Beatrice is unable or unwilling to say “Among everyone, there exists no person who has multiple names” in red.
Beatrice, in red:
- There are not eighteen or more people on this island.
- In other words, an eighteenth person X does not exist.
- This applies to all the games.
With Battler’s theory that there is an unknown person on the island excluded, he makes the following speculations, which presumably should be in blue but are not. Otherwise, they aren’t attacks that should hurt Beatrice. The animators probably stopped using blue and red lest viewers start thinking they’re color blind, but there should at least have been some stylistic hint that certain statements were blue or red. Or there could have been there, but the stylistic cues were so subtle that I missed them.
- For the first round, there is no problem with the initial six victims from episode I-II since anyone without an alibi could have done it.
- The murders of Genji, Nanjo, and Kumasawa in episode I-IV can be explained by a killer X who faked their death. If this doesnâ€™t work, Genji, Nanjo, and Kumasawa might have shot each other, with Maria hiding the guns afterward. (Beatrice said that Maria did not kill them and that they were indeed murdered, which presumably should have been done in red.)
- For the second round, the initial six victims from episode II-III ate food containing high explosives, which resulted in their guts exploding.
- For the six initial murders and the associated composite locked room mystery from episode III-III in the third round: it is not a locked room mystery at all, since the killer could have just pretended to have found one of the keys on one of the bodies while having carried it all along.
- For Nanjo’s murder from episode III-VI in the third round: someone only pretended to have been killed, who would then go on to kill Nanjo, and then ended up dead, anyway, allowing EvaBeatrice a timing trick in declaring a person dead.
In the end, the heart of Beatrice says the following, which presumably should be but is not shown in red:
- Ushiromiya Battler, there is no one besides you on this island now. The only one alive on this island is you. And yet I am here, and I will be killing you. Who am I? Who am I?